Europe’s car-transport sector finds itself at another turning point. After years of turbulence, from the pandemic to geopolitical upheaval that has reshaped automotive trade flows, the question facing hauliers and shippers is whether the chronic shortage of drivers is finally beginning to ease. On the surface, the picture looks encouraging, but a closer look reveals a different reality. The shortage has merely been masked by a slump in finished vehicle logistics (FVL) volumes, not resolved by an influx of new drivers.
This article examines the true scale of the shortfall, the forces driving it, and the efforts to reverse the trend. It also looks ahead: what the coming decade may bring and what it means for transport operators and shippers across Europe.
Why the driver shortage seemed less severe
Vehicle logistics has been hit by an extraordinary collapse in volumes. FVL, the transport of new cars and 33.8% of Europe’s automotive logistics market, has shrunk by 3.2 million vehicles compared with the pre-pandemic years. This is not a routine fluctuation but a structural shift shaped by macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical instability.
With fewer vehicles to move, demand for drivers dipped temporarily. Companies that normally struggle to staff their fleets found planning marginally easier. However, the underlying causes of the shortage did not budge. They were simply obscured by lower pressure on the system.
A renewed threat as volumes recover
The outlook for European automotive logistics between 2025 and 2035 points to renewed growth, but growth unevenly spread across transport modes:
- Road transport: average annual growth of 1.7%
- Rail: average annual growth of 7%
- Sea freight: nearly 5% per year
- Air freight (mainly parts): around 2%
Rail’s faster rise reflects EU policy favouring greener modes, yet its usefulness is limited to long-distance bulk flows. Last-mile distribution and most domestic movements will remain road-based. The need for drivers, in other words, is not going away.
For 70% of Europe’s car-transport operators, the driver shortage is already the single biggest constraint on growth, even in lean years. Companies want to expand fleets and routes but cannot find the people to drive them. It is a structural brake on the scalability of the entire automotive supply chain. Once volumes rebound, the bottleneck will tighten again.
How deep is the shortage?
Europe counts roughly 6 million professional drivers. Of these:
- about 30% are older than 55
- only 7% are under 25
A third of the workforce is heading for retirement within a decade, while the pipeline of new drivers is barely a trickle. The IRU estimates more than 400,000 unfilled vacancies today, a figure that could exceed 2 million by 2030 without major intervention.
Country-level pressures
- Netherlands: 10,000 to 12,000 vacancies, with outflow outpacing inflow
- Germany: 60,000 to 80,000 vacancies, among the largest in Europe
- France: around 50,000 vacancies and a rising average age
- Belgium and Denmark: shortages affecting both national and cross-border flows
- Poland and Romania: once Europe’s labour buffer, now short by 100,000 and 40,000 to 70,000 drivers respectively, eroding the continent’s fallback supply
The drivers of the driver drought
1. Ageing workforce and low entry rates
The demographic imbalance is stark. Older drivers are retiring in large numbers, while young people show little appetite for the job. Thousands leave each year. Far fewer enter. The “school-to-wheel gap”, the delay between leaving school and reaching the legal driving age, means many young people choose other careers before they are even eligible to drive a truck.
2. Training costs and bureaucracy
Licensing and certification are expensive and time-consuming. Without subsidies, the cost barrier is prohibitive for many. Regulatory and administrative burdens add further deterrents.
3. Working conditions
Long hours, nights away from home, physical strain and increasingly tight compliance regimes make the job demanding. Europe also faces a stark shortage of secure parking spaces: an estimated 100,000 fewer than needed, with only 10% meeting acceptable standards. Nine out of ten drivers cite this as a major concern. Poor treatment at loading sites, including long waits and a lack of facilities, further undermines the profession’s appeal.
4. Pay and competition
While pay often sits 30% to 135% above national minimum wages, rival sectors such as construction and engineering compete for the same workers and offer more predictable hours. For the small hauliers who make up 89% of the market, wage inflation, which averaged 5% across Europe in 2024, puts pressure on already thin margins.
5. Image problem
The perception of trucking as outdated, isolating and physically taxing deters newcomers. This is despite the reality that modern trucks are technologically advanced and many drivers report genuine job satisfaction. Around 81% say they are satisfied, with 57% highly satisfied. Yet only 6% to 7% of drivers are under 25, and women account for just 4% of the workforce, a huge untapped pool.
6. Structural dependence and shifting labour flows
Western Europe has long relied on drivers from Central and Eastern Europe. However, those countries now face shortages of their own and have improved wages, reducing the economic incentive to work abroad. The EU Mobility Package has also tightened rules on cabotage and worker posting, increasing complexity and cost. The war in Ukraine further disrupted labour flows and pushed supply and demand out of balance.
The outlook
The coming decade is likely to widen the gap between supply and demand before it narrows. Demand for transport will grow as the automotive market stabilises.
- Entry rates will only rise if training becomes more affordable
- Rail will grow quickly but will not replace road transport
- Digital platforms such as TransConnect will play a bigger role in improving utilisation
- Governments are expected to invest more in secure parking and driver training
- Dependence on foreign labour will continue
- Persistent scarcity will keep transport costs elevated
Conclusion
Europe’s driver shortage is not a passing inconvenience but a structural challenge. Recent relief was largely the result of shrinking FVL volumes. When the market accelerates, the pressure on capacity will return quickly.
Road transport may grow modestly, but it will remain the backbone of automotive logistics. The driver shortage therefore continues to pose one of the greatest risks to the sector’s scalability.
A durable solution will require a combination of better working conditions, lower entry barriers, improved public perception, digital optimisation and cross-border cooperation. TransConnect is already contributing through enhanced efficiency, spot-filling capacity and greater accessibility for new drivers.
With sustained effort and long-term vision, the shortage can be stabilised and eventually reduced. However, meaningful progress will require time, investment and cooperation across the sector.
